Sunday 15th April 2012, 11.30am GMT (live on ESPN)
Throughout the course of the season I have found that picking Lazio to win has been a minefield, because one never knows which Lazio will show up. I picked them to beat Parma a couple of weeks back – which they should have been able to do in second gear – and they were absolutely terrible on the night. I have watched their two games since that defeat however, and I have seen enough to convince me that they’re worth backing to beat Novara at almost evens.
While Novara are resigned to a Serie B campaign next season, Lazio are still in pole position for third place (and the Champions League qualification which comes with it) despite their narrow defeat at league-leaders Juventus on Wednesday night. They gave an excellent display of their counter-attacking ability in their win over Napoli last weekend, and their performance in Turin was tenacious, despite the fact that they were missing first-choice players all over the field. Tomorrow they will have to do without Stefano Mauri and Libor Kozak who are suspended, while Miroslav Klose and Andre Dias are still injured. Mauri will be missed, as he has been superb in recent weeks, although his absence will present out-of-form midfielder Hernanez – who has generally started on the bench of late - with an opportunity to impress Edy Reja.
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| With rumours linking him to Arsenal and Tottenham, will Hernanez recover his form tomorrow? |
Novara lost 2-0 to Parma last week, and even they must know that the eleven-point gap which separates them from Serie A survival is too big to bridge over the remaining six games of the season. Though Lazio haven’t won away from home since January (not counting the Rome derby, when they were technically the away team), Novara have the conceded more goals than every other Serie A team except for Genoa. They have also recorded only three home wins all season. The Lazio players seem to have finally realised the importance of fighting for every point between now and the end of the season, and I think they will take all three tomorrow.
Prediction – Lazio to win – 6 points
Match odds: Novara 11/4
Draw 23/10
Lazio 19/20
