Friday, January 7, 2011

Serie A – week 19 betting tips

Napoli v Juventus Preview and Betting Tips
January 9th 2011, 7.45pm GMT (live on ESPN)

Juventus saw their 13-game unbeaten run come to a humiliating end against Parma on Thursday. The Turin side's disappointment was compounded by the news that the knee injury suffered by striker Fabio Quagliarella during the game would rule him out for the remainder of the season. They have wasted no time in replacing Quagliarella, signing 33 year-old Luca Toni today on a permanent transfer. The veteran is expected to make his debut against Napoli.

Midfielder Felipe Melo was handed a three-match ban following his dismissal on Thursday, so he will be unavailable for this visit to the Stadio San Paulo. Juventus are likely to be represented by Aquilani, Marchisio and Pepe in the centre of midfield on Sunday.

Hosts Napoli are currently in contention for their first Scudetto since Diego Maradona wore the sky blue. They failed to capitalise on Juventus’ defeat on Thursday evening however, losing 3-1 to a rejuvenated Internazionale at the San Siro. Despite the return of the excellent Ezequiel Lavezzi from injury, the Southerners never really threatened Inter from open play, their only goal coming from a set-piece.

This game is too tough to call in terms of the result. Both sides tasted defeat last time out, and they will be anxious to begin picking up points again. With Napoli sitting in third place with 33 points, and Juventus a mere 2 points behind them in fifth, there is a lot at stake. Quagliarella’s unfortunate injury notwithstanding, both of these teams boast a lot of quality in attack, and I expect to see some goals when they meet on Sunday.

Prediction: over 2.5 goals – 3pts

Match odds:      Napoli                 5/4
                       Draw                 11/5
                       Juventus             2/1
                       Over 2.5 goals    evens

Napoli: Last 5 Serie A Results
06.01.2011 – Inter Milan 3-1 Napoli
19.12.2010 – Napoli 1-0 Lecce
11.12.2010 - Genoa 0-1 Napoli
06.12.2010 - Napoli 1-0 Palermo
28.11.2010 - Udinese 3-1 Napoli

Juventus: Last 5 Serie A Results
06.01.2011 – Juventus 1-4 Parma
19.12.2010 - Chievo 1-1 Juventus
12.12.2010 - Juventus 2-1 Lazio
05.12.2010 - Catania 1-3 Juventus
27.11.2010 - Juventus 1-1 Fiorentina

"El Pocho" Lavezzi ("The Chubby One") - Back from injury

*****

Parma v Cagliari Preview and Betting Tips
January 9th 2011, 2pm GMT

As mentioned above, Parma’s 4-1 defeat of Juventus at the Stadio Delle Alpi was the biggest surprise from Thursday’s Serie A fixtures. Though Juventus were reduced to ten men from the 17th minute, this was a comprehensive win for Parma. Hernan Crespo looks to be enjoying his football lately, and he converted a penalty which he himself had won. Sebastian Giovinco has proved a useful addition for Parma since he signed on loan from Juventus, and he scored two against his parent club on Thursday.

Cagliari are one of the many Serie A clubs who seem to suffer from acute bouts of homesickness. While usually reliable on their own home turf in Sardinia, they tend to struggle on the road, and won’t be relishing this visit to the Stadio Ennio Tardini on Sunday.

Prediction: Parma to win – 5pts

Match odds:      Parma      10/11
                       Draw         9/4
                       Cagliari      3/1

Parma: Last 5 Serie A Results
06.01.2011 – Juventus 1-4 Parma
19.12.2010 - Parma 0-0 Bologna
11.12.2010 - Palermo 3-1 Parma
05.12.2010 - Parma 2-1 Udinese
28.11.2010 – Inter Milan 5-2 Parma

Cagliari: Last 5 Serie A Results
06.01.2011 – Cagliari 0-1 AC Milan
18.12.2010 - Cesena 1-0 Cagliari
12.12.2010 - Cagliari 3-0 Catania
05.12.2010 - Fiorentina 1-0 Cagliari
28.11.2010 - Cagliari 3-2 Lecce


Crespo: will he be celebrating on Sunday?

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Lazio v Lecce Preview and Betting Tips
January 9th 2011, 2pm GMT

Lazio’s attacking players were frustrated at Genoa on Thursday, and they could well have lost the game were it not for the performance of goalkeeper Fernando Muslera. Their back four were also solid however, and the return of Stefan Radu from injury will help their defensive cause.
Lecce lost at home to local rivals Bari on Thursday, and now lie just a single point above the bottom side. After their joy at having earned promotion to the top flight last May, they will obviously be keen to avoid a swift return to Serie B. Their form is not encouraging however, and I am backing Lazio to win by a margin of more than one goal at the Stadio Olimpico.

Prediction: Lazio to win -1 (handicap betting) – 2pts

Match odds:      Lazio         2/5
                       Draw         3/1
                       Lecce       15/2
                       Lazio -1     6/5

Lazio: Last 5 Serie A Results
06.01.2011 – Genoa 0-0 Lazio
19.12.2010 - Lazio 3-2 Udinese
12.12.2010 - Juventus 2-1 Lazio
03.12.2010 - Lazio 3-1 Inter Milan
28.11.2010 - Lazio 1-1 Catania

Lecce: Last 5 Serie A Results
06.01.2011 – Lecce 0-1 Bari
19.12.2010 - Napoli 1-0 Lecce
12.12.2010 - Lecce 3-2 Chievo
05.12.2010 - Lecce 1-3 Genoa
28.11.2010 - Cagliari 3-2 Lecce 



Good luck!