Napoli v Internazionale Match Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday 26th February 2012, 7.45pm GMT (live on ESPN)

The contrasting fortunes of these two sides was epitomised by their respective Champions League results in midweek. Inter’s performance in Marseilles – although quite negative and defensive – wasn’t bad compared to their recent domestic efforts. A late lapse in concentration however meant that they recorded a fourth straight defeat, despite their efforts. Napoli, meanwhile, are on the crest of a wave and on the verge of a Champions League quarter-final after beating Chelsea convincingly on the same turf where they will face Inter on Sunday evening.

Inter’s league form has been erratic this term, to say the least. Following a rocky start to the season under Gian Piero Gasperini, his replacement Claudio Ranieri appeared to stabilise the squad. An impressive run of results followed, including a win in the Milan derby and a come-from-behind victory over Lazio, and then the Nerazzurri suddenly fell apart again. Nine-year-old fan Filippo showed up at the San Siro for last week’s game against Bologna with a (very polite) banner which read "Could you win? Otherwise at school they will make fun of me. Thanks, Filippo." Bologna won 3-0. Poor Filippo.

I'm not predicting an enjoyable week in school for Filippo next week...

Napoli have always been a tough nut to crack at the Stadio San Paolo, and their current squad is the best they have had in a long time. Gokhan Inler has added quite a bit of guile in midfield to a team which finished in the top three last season. Marek Hamsik is suspended for this game, but fellow attackers Cavani and Lavezzi are on top form at present, and on-loan-from-Inter player Goran Pandev will provide adequate cover for Hamsik on Sunday. Inter defenders Maicon, Ranocchia and playmaker Ricardo Alvarez are all expected to miss out due to injury.

Ranieri is currently feeling the pressure at Inter, and Chairman Massimo Moratti’s recent statement that he will “try to keep going” with the former Chelsea boss was hardly a vote of massive confidence. The Inter coach has made some strange selection decisions of late – starting the frustrating Mauro Zarate ahead of top scorer Diego Milito in Marseilles for example – and he appears to have lost the confidence of his players. Five league games without a win tells its own story, and I don’t expect Napoli to show their wounded opponents any mercy on Sunday.

Prediction – Napoli to win – 4pts

Match odds:            Napoli           10/11

                             Draw            9/4

                             Inter             3/1

Serie A - round 24 results

Cesena         1-3       AC Milan     

Genoa           0-1       Chievo       

Lecce            4-1       Siena

Novara          0-0       Atalanta     

Palermo         5-1       Lazio

Roma            1-0       Parma        

Udinese         0-0       Cagliari       

Juventus       3-1       Catania      

Fiorentina      0-3       Napoli        

Inter             0-3       Bologna

Palermo v Lazio Match Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday 19th February 2012, 7.45pm GMT (live on ESPN, Setanta IRL)

Lazio have performed better away from home than they have at the Stadio Olimpico so far this season, and they will need to be at their best on Sunday when they face the daunting task of taking on Palermo at the Stadio Renzo Barbera.

Palermo were defeated by Napoli in their first game of 2012, but they have won all three home games since then, scoring nine goals in the process. The Rosanero sit just three points behind Napoli in eighth place, and they will be eager to qualify for the Europa League once again, as they did last season (through the Coppa Italia).

Lazio showed both their strengths and frailties as a team all in the space of 90 minutes during their last league fixture. 2-0 down on the scoreboard by half-time, and down to ten men on the field, Edy Reja’s men staged a spirited second-half comeback to eventually beat Cesena 3-2. Their defensive problems were evident again yesterday when they lost 3-1 to Atletico Madrid in a home Europa League knockout stage fixture.

Will Palermo captain Miccoli terrorise Lazio's defence on Sunday?

The Romans have failed to maintain consistent form for prolonged periods of this season thanks to a permanently debilitating injury list. Italian international midfielder Stefano Mauri has barely kicked a ball, while Hernanez, Rocchi, Radu, Dias, Kozak and Konko have all missed chunks of the campaign. In fact, Lazio’s current injury problems are so severe that three under-age players were included in the 19-man squad selected to face Atletico Madrid. It is to Reja’s credit that his team still hold a place in Serie A’s top three, and one wonders what they might have achieved with a fully fit squad.

Palermo have been scoring plenty of goals lately, and top scorer Fabrizio Miccoli is expected to return for this game having missed the defeat at Cagliari due to injury. This spells bad news for a Lazio defence who will be missing Konko and Diakite through suspension, while Radu, Dias and Biava are all struggling with injuries. What we have here is two teams with struggling defences who usually tend to compensate by scoring a few themselves. The result is a tough one to call, but I do expect to see a few goals on Sunday evening.

Prediction – over 2.5 goals – 5pts

Match odds:            Palermo                  6/4

                             Draw                      21/10

                             Lazio                      7/4

                             Over 2.5 goals         evens

Serie A - round 23 results

Lazio             3-2       Cesena

Cagliari          2-1       Palermo     

Udinese         1-2       AC Milan

Atalanta        0-0       Lecce         

Catania         4-0       Genoa        

Inter             0-1       Novara                                       

Napoli           2-0       Chievo       

Siena            1-0       Roma                            

Parma            P-P       Fiorentina             

Bologna         P-P       Juventus

Re-fixed games from round 21 (played yesterday):

Atalanta        1-0       Genoa        

Parma           0-0       Juventus

Catania v Genoa Match Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday 12th February 2012, 2pm GMT

This week’s featured game has been chosen for much the same reason as last week’s: games involving Genoa have seen a lot of goals lately, and I don’t believe that the odds reflect this fact.

The Rossoblu’s record at Catania is not a good one – they have lost seven of their last nine games at the Stadio Angelo Massimino – and although their away form is nowhere near as solid as their record at home, back-to-back wins over Napoli and Lazio will have boosted their confidence ahead of Sunday’s game.

Only two players have scored more Serie A goals this season than Genoa's Rodrigo Palacio

Another source of inspiration for Genoa will be Catania’s own lacklustre form. Vincenzo Montella’s men began the season well, but just one win in their last six home games is not a good return – even if the win in question did come in the Sicilian derby against Palermo. Despite the fact that Striker Maxi Lopez wasn’t firing on all cylinders so far this season, his move to Milan last month won’t help Catania’s cause. Though having said that, the Rossazzurri did make a few interesting loan acquisitions of their own in January, most notably midfielder Felipe Seymour from Genoa and defender Marco Motta from Juventus.

An away win for Genoa here would not be at all surprising – they have found the net three times in each of their last four games – but I believe that banking on goals here is a safer bet than picking a winner. Genoa’s last six games have averaged over five goals in total, so let’s hope for some more on Sunday afternoon!

Prediction – over 2.5 goals – 5pts

Match odds:            Catania                             6/5

                             Draw                                11/5

                             Genoa                              11/5

                             Over 2.5 goals                   evens

Serie A - round 22 results

AC Milan        0-0       Napoli        

Chievo          1-2       Parma        

Fiorentina      3-2       Udinese      

Genoa           3-2       Lazio

Juventus       0-0       Siena

Lecce            0-0       Bologna      

Novara          0-0       Cagliari       

Palermo         2-1       Atalanta     

Roma            4-0       Inter

Cesena          P-P       Catania

Genoa v Lazio Match Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday 5th February 2012, 11.30am GMT

Lazio will be in high spirits as they travel to Genoa on Sunday after beating the current champions in impressive fashion on Wednesday evening. The odds were stacked against the Romans when the news broke that top scorer Miroslav Klose had joined their lengthy injury list, but goals from their attack-minded midfielder Hernanez and lone available striker Tommaso Rocchi sealed all three points for the fourth-placed Biancoceleste.

Unlike Lazio, Genoa were quite active in the recent January transfer window. They brought winger Giuseppe Sculli back from Lazio after he had spent a year in the capital, and they also lured striker Alberto Gilardino away from Fiorentina. Other new arrivals in January included Davide Biondini (midfielder, signed from Cagliari) and Fernando Belluschi (midfielder, on loan from Porto). The addition of Gilardino - who has already found the net for his new team - and Sculli in particular cement an exciting attacking line-up for Genoa, which already included the excellent Rodrigo Palacio and Chilean Cristóbal Jorquera.

Sculli: back in the Genoa colours again after his spell at Lazio

At the time of writing it is unclear whether Klose will have recovered from his thigh injury in time for this game, but whether he is on the field or not I think we will see a few goals scored on Sunday. The last time these two sides faced one another (in September) Genoa beat Lazio 2-1 at the Stadio Olimpico, and there were six goals scored on the meeting previous to that.

Considering the fact that four of Lazio’s last six games, and all of Genoa’s last six games, featured at least three goals, I think over 2.5 is well worth a shot at around evens.

Prediction – Over 2.5 goals – 5pts

Match odds:            Genoa                    17/10 

                             Draw                      11/5   

                             Lazio                      6/4

                             Over 2.5 goals         evens  

Serie A - round 21 results

Parma           P-P       Juventus

Atalanta        P-P       Genoa

Bologna        P-P       Fiorentina

Siena            P-P       Catania

Cagliari         4-2       Roma

Inter            4-4       Palermo

Lazio            2-0       AC Milan     

Napoli           0-0       Cesena       

Udinese         2-1       Lecce         

Novara          1-2       Chievo

As you can see, four of the ten scheduled midweek games were called of due to the harsh weather conditions in Northern Italy this week. All three evening fixtures for this weekend have been brought forward to afternoon kick-offs in an effort to increase the chances of the games going ahead.

Cesena v Catania and Roma v Inter will now kick off at 2pm GMT tomorrow (Saturday), while AC Milan v Napoli kicks off at 2pm GMT on Sunday.