Inter v Palermo Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday May 29th 2011, 8pm GMT (live on ESPN)

Inter face Palermo at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome tomorrow evening in this year's Coppa Italia final. Inter’s run of five straight Scudetto wins came to an end this season, but if they win tomorrow they will at least be able to return one of the three trophies which they won last year to the cabinet.

Both of these sides had to rely on penalty shoot-outs to make it through the quarter-final stage of this competition. Palermo then went on to beat Champions AC Milan in their semi-final, while Inter dispatched with Roma. Palermo have never won this competition, though their coach Delio Rossi won it two years ago while he was in charge at Lazio. Rossi’s tempestuous relationship with club president Maurizio Zamparini continues to draw speculation, and there are rumours that they may part company for the second time this season after the final – despite the fact that Palermo have only lost twice since Rossi's return in April. By bringing his team to the final, Rossi has already guaranteed Europa League football for Palermo as their opponents Inter will be participating in the Champions League. Zamparini compared his relationship with Rossi to a marriage in recent weeks: “He is like my wife…You can argue, but you stay together.”

Rossi is aiming for his second Coppa Italia win in three years

Inter coach Leonardo is hoping to win his first trophy since taking charge in January. He has a perfect home record in the league with Inter, and they have been scoring plenty of goals, but their defence is a lot less watertight than it was last year under Jose Mourinho. The nature of their Champions League exit also raises questions about the mental fortitude of this Inter team, who also looked uncertain in the final minutes of their cup semi-final against Roma. Talented Brazilian full-back Maicon is suspended for this game, but midfielder Wesley Sneijder has recovered from injury and is expected to start. Palermo defender Cesare Bovo and midfielder Armin Bacinovic are also suspended.

Inter have beaten Palermo twice in the league this season, recovering from a two-goal deficit to win 3-2 in the last encounter between these two teams. Palermo will be well motivated however, and Rossi’s impressive tactical knowledge was a key factor in helping his side overcome Milan in the semi-final. Palermo +1 looks like a tempting bet at evens, as they are capable of taking the game into extra time at least. However I am expecting to see an attacking final tomorrow, and I don't think either goalkeeper will manage to maintain a clean sheet.

Prediction – both teams to score – 5pts

Match odds:    Inter                             3/4

                     Draw                             7/2

                     Palermo                         5/2

                     Both Teams To Score      4/6

Serie A – week 38 round-up

The Stadio Friuli was the party venue as the curtain closed on another Serie A season. A 0-0 draw with Champions AC Milan was enough to secure a place in the Champions League qualifiers for Udinese, a feat which coach Francesco Guidolin had come close to twice in the past but had never achieved. Guidolin carried out his promise to dance like Kevin Prince Boateng after the game, but it is unlikely that Boateng will have felt overly threatened by the 55-year-old’s moves!

Udinese appear destined to lose some of the players who helped win them a place in Europe’s biggest club competition – Alexis Sánchez and Gökhan Inler in particular are expected to move on - but as club owner Giampaolo Pozzo said afterwards, the Friuli club have a good track record as far as recruiting fresh talent is concerned. One player who played a huge part in Udinese’s success, and who is likely to stay, is Antonio Di Natale. The 34-year-old striker’s 28 league goals have won him the Golden Boot for the second year running, a fantastic achievement in a league where defences are notoriously stingy. Napoli’s Edinson Cavani scored 26, and Samuel Eto’o of Inter came third with 21 goals.

Di Natale celebrates another season of terrifying defences

Di Natale was denied a 29th goal yesterday when second-choice Milan goalkeeper Marco Amelia pushed the striker's second-half penalty onto the post. Amelia had come in as a late replacement for Christian Abbiati, and a series of fine saves from the 29-year-old frustrated the Udinese attack time and time again. There was emotion for Milan fans also after the game when they said goodbye to Andrea Pirlo, who departs for Juventus after ten years in the red and black.

If Udinese achieved Champions League qualification the hard way, Lazio missed out the hard way. The Romans finished level on points with Udinese thanks to their 4-2 win at Lecce, but are one place lower in the rankings due to an inferior goal difference. Coach Edy Reja was clearly disappointed after yesterday's game: “It makes us very bitter, especially considering we lost the decisive match with Udinese, wasting a penalty.” Mauro Zarate converted in style from the spot at Lecce yesterday, but it was his missed effort at Udinese which Reja was referring to. Having refused to blame the Argentinian at the time, blaming him at the end of a game which saw Zarate score twice was a curious decision by Reja.

Lazio’s rivals Roma - who ended their season with a 3-1 home win over Sampdoria - will join the Biancoceleste in the Europa League. Roma are expected to have a new manager in charge by the start of the season, and captain Francesco Totti has expressed a preference for former Chelsea boss Carlo Ancelotti.

Juventus will definitely have a new manager by the start of next season, as Luigi Del Neri announced that he would be leaving before the weekend's round of games. The Juventus players were booed after their final home game at the Stadio Olimpico, a 2-2 draw with Napoli. The Bianconeri will move to the newly-built Juventus Arena next season, but their poor showing this term means that there will be no European football at the new stadium in the immediate future.

Inter’s 3-1 win over Catania was coach Leonardo’s 12th home win out of 12 home league games in charge of the Milan club. Their opponents in next Sunday’s Coppa Italia final, Palermo, lost 3-1 at home to Chievo yesterday despite having taken the lead in the fifteenth minute. The cup final will be previewed here on Friday, incidentally.

Francesco Grandolfo scored a hat-trick for Bari yesterday in what was his first ever start for the southern club. Bari have struggled in front of goal all season, so perhaps they will regret not having given the 18-year-old a chance before now. Their 4-0 win at Bologna was their last competitive game before a return to Serie B.

Elsewhere, Brescia drew 2-2 with Fiorentina, while Cagliari and Parma also discovered the joy of sharing. Genoa finished their season with a 3-2 home win over Cesena, before taking to the streets to celebrate the relegation of their rivals by carrying a coffin decorated with Sampdoria colours. Check the Football Blog Page for further details!

Til next time…

Serie A: week 38 results

Bologna     0-4    Bari    

Brescia      2-2    Fiorentina    

Cagliari      1-1    Parma        

Genoa       3-2    Cesena       

Inter         3-1    Catania       

Juventus    2-2    Napoli         

Lecce        2-4    Lazio        

Palermo     1-3    Chievo      

Roma        3-1    Sampdoria

Udinese     0-0    AC Milan   

Serie A – week 38 preview

The only games which have any real significance on the final day of the Serie A season are Udinese’s clash with Champions AC Milan and Lazio’s visit to Lecce.

When predicting games, I try to find value rather than to pick the odds-on bankers where possible. Having struggled for a couple of weeks I was pleased with last week’s return of two successful predictions out of three. Having checked both the odds and results from the final day of last season in Serie A, I note that each of the ten results followed the shortest odds on offer with a single exception. So as the last day is clearly not a good one for finding value, I am focusing solely on the two decisive fixtures for this week (previews below). 

Those having a bet on any of Sunday’s Serie A games would be well advised to proceed with caution, and to follow the odds. Also worth bearing in mind is the fact that Inter and Palermo are likely to rest key players ahead of their Coppa Italia final which takes place next week in Rome.

Udinese v Roma Preview and Betting Tips / Lecce v Lazio Preview and Betting Tips

Both Udinese and Lazio still have a chance of finishing in fourth place, a position which would gain them entry to the Champions League qualifiers in August. Udinese are currently two points ahead of Lazio, and a draw in their game – a result heavily favoured by the bookmakers – would mean that Lazio need to beat Lecce by at least nine goals to overtake Udinese. Lecce have conceded more than any other team in the top flight, including the three teams below them who have been relegated, but they are unlikely to add another nine or ten to their “goals against” tally on Sunday.

Lazio beat Genoa 4-2 last Saturday to remain in the fight for fourth place, but three straight defeats before that game mean that theirs is an uphill struggle on Sunday. While they flirted with a top four placement for most of the season, the Romans are now likely to be playing in the Europa League after the Summer break along with their city rivals. The fact that Lecce no longer have to worry about relegation could either cause them to play with more freedom or with more apathy, but either way Lazio should have enough quality in their line-up to secure the points.

Francesco Guidolin taking a quiet moment to reflect on his dance routines

The last time Udinese and Milan met they played out a thrilling 4-4 draw at the San Siro in January, and the Rossoneri’s last victory at the Stadio Friuli was in January 2008. Udinese themselves have hardly been consistent during the run-in to the end of the season, but a 2-1 win over Lazio followed by a 2-0 defeat of Chievo has put them in the driving seat. The last time they played in Europe’s elite club competition was in 2005/06, and as coach Francesco Guidolin has said of their task on Sunday, “we have to make the most of our chances in order to obtain the result that would take us to paradise.” As mentioned last week, Guidolin has vowed to emulate Kevin Prince Boateng by showcasing his own dance moves if Udinese achieve Champions League qualification (he plans to get some help and advice from Udinese's South American stars).

Milan are on an unbeaten run of seven league games, so this is not necessarily a straightforward task for Udinese. It remains to be seen how the Champions will approach the game: their season is effectively over, but six players (including Clarence Seedorf and Massimo Ambrosini) are out of contract after this game and may therefore be eager to impress. 31-year-old midfielder Andrea Pirlo has already announced that he will be leaving the club after 10 years of service, while Alessandro Nesta and Filippo Inzaghi have signed new one-year contracts.

Lecce will celebrate their survival in Serie A at the Stadio Via del Mare on Sunday

While nothing is certain in football, a draw in Friuli would suit both the Champions and their hosts. And when a certain result suits both teams in an Italian game, that result often comes to pass - as it did two weeks ago when Milan needed a point from their game against Roma to secure the league title. If the sides are tied at half time, we may well see a timid second half like that which Napoli and Inter played out last Sunday.

Lazio need to avenge their defeat by Lecce earlier this season if they are to have any hope of fourth place, and they should do so. Lecce is a tough place to visit, but the hosts had both a derby win and Serie A survival to celebrate last Sunday and they are unlikely to be fighting as keenly for the points as their visitors this weekend. Though Lazio would have been delighted with the prospect of a fifth-place finish at the start of the season, Edy Reja and his players will ultimately be regretting missed opportunities if – as is now likely - they end up two points short of Champions League football and the significant financial boost it brings.

Predictions – Udinese to draw with AC Milan   – 3pts

                – Lazio to win at Lecce                – 5pts

Serie A: week 38 fixtures and odds (all games take place on Sunday May 22nd)

K.O. (GMT)   Fixtures                        Home   Draw    Away

5pm              Cagliari v Parma             11/10    11/5     12/5

5pm              Genoa v Cesena               4/6      13/5     4/1

5pm              Palermo v Chievo             3/4       5/2      7/2

5pm              Bologna v Bari                8/13     13/5     9/2

5pm              Brescia v Fiorentina        19/10    21/10    7/5

5pm              Inter Milan v Catania       1/2      14/5     11/2

7.45pm          Juventus v Napoli          10/11     12/5     11/4

7.45pm          Roma v Sampdoria           2/7       4/1       9/1

7.45pm          Udinese v AC Milan          9/4       4/7       5/1

7.45pm          Lecce v Lazio                  5/1      13/5      4/7

Udinese: Last 5 Serie A Results

15.05.2011 – Chievo         0-2    Udinese

08.05.2011 – Udinese       2-1    Lazio

01.05.2011 – Fiorentina    5-2     Udinese

23.04.2011 – Udinese       0-2     Parma

17.05.2011 – Napoli         1-2     Udinese

AC Milan: Last 5 Serie A Results

14.05.2011 – AC Milan      4-1     Cagliari

07.05.2011 – Roma          0-0     AC Milan

01.05.2011 – AC Milan      1-0     Bologna

23.04.2011 – Brescia        0-1     AC Milan

16.05.2011 – AC Milan      3-0     Sampdoria

Lecce: Last 5 Serie A Results

15.05.2011 – Bari             0-2     Lecce

08.05.2011 – Lecce           2-1     Napoli

01.05.2011 – Chievo         1-0     Lecce

23.04.2011 – Genoa          4-2    Lecce

17.04.2011 – Lecce           3-3     Cagliari

Lazio: Last 5 Serie A Results

14.05.2011 – Lazio            4-2     Genoa

08.05.2011 – Udinese        2-1     Lazio

02.05.2011 – Lazio            0-1     Juventus

23.04.2011 – Inter            2-1     Lazio

17.04.2011 – Catania        1-4     Lazio

Serie A – week 37 round-up

Having entertained their supporters with a 4-1 thrashing of Cagliari, AC Milan then hosted a party at the San Siro on Saturday to celebrate their 18th Scudetto. As he had promised to do if Milan won the title, Kevin Prince Boateng showed off his moonwalking skills while dressed in a Michael Jackson costume – a performance which you can view on the Football Blog Page.

The Champions lifted the Scudetto on Saturday

Though Milan had clinched the title before this weekend, other matters were still up for decision in Italy. Lecce beat local rivals Bari 2-0 to ensure survival in the top flight next season, while Cesena also guaranteed their Serie A status by beating Brescia 1-0. Sampdoria needed a win over Palermo to survive, but the necessary attacking efforts left them open at the back and the visitors took full advantage, winning 2-1. Only a year after the Blucerchiati were celebrating qualification for the Champions League, they face a future in Serie B.

The only thing still undecided going into the final day of the season is whether Udinese or Lazio will match Sampdoria’s achievement last season by unexpectedly securing Champions League qualification. Roma won’t qualify this time, as two late goals from Catania yesterday spelled defeat for the Giallorossi and ruled them out of contention for fourth place. Coach Vincenzo Montella hinted that he was keen to have a sit-down with Roma’s new American owners regarding his future: “since I have been at Roma I have had to go against my own judgment on certain matters”

Udinese are still in pole position for that Champions League place following their 2-0 victory at Chievo, while Roma’s rivals Lazio kept the pressure on with a 4-2 win over Genoa on Saturday. Udinese are two points clear of Lazio, so a draw against the Champions on the final day should be enough, unless Lazio beat Lecce by more than eight goals. A win for Udinese will definitely secure fourth, an achievement which coach Francesco Guidolin has promised to celebrate by attempting to emulate Boateng’s dance moves!

Inter and Napoli needed a point each to ensure that they would finish in second and third places respectively, hence there was very little attacking intent in the second half of their 1-1 draw yesterday. Gentlemanly conduct was the order of the day on the pitch, while spectators struggled to maintain consciousness. Now that they will be playing in the Champions League, Napoli have turned their attentions to holding on to the man who brought them there, as the stories linking coach Walter Mazzarri to Juventus refuse to go away.

Midfielder Sebastian Giovinco inflicted hurt on his parent club Juventus once again by scoring the only goal in a 1-0 win for Parma. Juve now look likely to miss out on both European competitions next season, a fact which Giorgio Chiellini lamented after the game: "This is the thousandth missed train of our season….we have never been a team.” Finally, Fiorentina’s last home game before the Summer ended in a 1-1 draw with Bologna.

Til next time…

Serie A: week 37 results

Bari             0-2      Lecce      

Catania        2-1      Roma      

Cesena        1-0      Brescia    

Chievo         0-2      Udinese  

Fiorentina    1-1      Bologna  

Napoli         1-1      Inter       

Parma         1-0      Juventus          

Sampdoria   1-2      Palermo  

AC Milan      4-1      Cagliari    

Lazio           4-2      Genoa

Parma v Juventus Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday May 15th 2011, 2pm GMT

Following a brief flirtation with the relegation battle, Parma have played their way out of danger and are now 6 points above the drop zone with just two games remaining. Juventus are three points below the Europa League qualifying places, and as is the case in the Sampdoria v Palermo game, the odds for this game reflect the motivation it contains for either side.

Juventus appeared to be cruising on Monday when they went 2-0 up on Chievo at the Stadio Olimpico in Turin. However, a dramatic second-half collapse allowed Chievo to rescue a point – indeed, the visitors were unlucky not to win the game in the end. The second-half turnaround epitomised the sort of season Juve have had under Luigi Del Neri, and strong rumours suggest that current Napoli boss Walter Mazzarri may take his place during the Summer.

Amauri and Giovinco in the colours of Juventus

Two players who have played a huge part in Parma’s recent revival - Sebastian Giovinco and striker Amauri (or little and large, if you prefer) - are both currently on loan from Juventus. Amauri has scored seven goals in eleven matches, while Giovinco scored twice against his parent club in January when Parma beat the Old Lady 4-1. Club president Tommaso Ghirardi has stated that he wishes to sign both of these players for Parma, and he has also confirmed that coach Franco Columbo – who he credits with saving the club from relegation this term – will be in charge next season.

If they hit form, Juventus have enough quality at their disposal to win on Sunday. Their form has been so unreliable this season however that it would be unsurprising to see them struggle against a Parma side who haven’t lost since Columbo’s first game in charge. The home side will be keen to ensure their place in Serie A next season, and they should manage at least a draw.

Prediction – Parma +1 (handicap betting) – 3pts

Match odds:    Parma                                3/1

                     Draw                                 9/4

                     Juventus                           10/11

                     Parma  +1                         8/11

Parma: Last 5 Serie A Results

08.05.2011 – Bologna        0-0     Parma

01.05.2011 – Parma          3-1     Palermo

23.04.2011 – Udinese        0-2     Parma

16.04.2011 – Parma          2-0     Inter

10.04.2011 – Lazio            2-0     Parma

Juventus: Last 5 Serie A Results

09.05.2011 – Juventus       2-2     Chievo

02.05.2011 – Lazio            0-1     Juventus

23.04.2011 – Juventus       2-2     Catania

17.04.2011 – Fiorentina     0-0     Juventus

10.04.2011 – Juventus       3-2     Genoa

Fiorentina v Bologna Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday May 15th 2011, 11.30am GMT (live on ESPN)

Effectively, neither of these teams have anything to play for going into this game: Bologna can technically still be relegated if Sampdoria win both their remaining games and Bologna themselves lose both of theirs, but this is an extremely unlikely eventuality. Bologna will be banking on at least a point from their meeting with already-relegated Bari on the final day of the season, the same day when Sampdoria must visit a Roma team who are competing for a place in European competition. Fiorentina, meanwhile, sit comfortably in ninth place in the table – far from the relegation zone, but also too far from the European qualifying positions. 

Midfielder Ricardo Montolivo has been offered a new contract by Fiorentina

Understandably, the main focus of conversation has turned to who will leave or join the Viola in the Summer. There have been rumblings of discontent among the Fiorentina support about the fact that their team will finish the season empty-handed and with no prospect of competing in Europe next term. Former Bologna and Catania coach Siniša Mihajlović steadied the ship somewhat after an inconsistent start to his first season in Florence, but he will need to show some improvement next season if he is to win the hearts of the Fiorentina crowd.

Bologna will be happy simply to have survived in Serie A, and this is reflected in their recent results. A single point from their last five games is all they have managed, and I don’t expect them to add to their total on Sunday.

Prediction – Fiorentina to win – 4pts

Match odds:    Fiorentina                          4/6

                     Draw                               15/8

                     Bologna                           13/2

Fiorentina: Last 5 Serie A Results

08.05.2011 – Inter           3-1     Fiorentina

01.05.2011 – Fiorentina    5-2     Udinese

23.04.2011 – Cagliari       1-2     Fiorentina

17.04.2011 – Fiorentina    0-0     Juventus

10.04.2011 – Fiorentina    1-2     AC Milan

Bologna: Last 5 Serie A Results

08.05.2011 – Bologna       0-0     Parma

01.05.2011 – AC Milan      1-0     Bologna

23.04.2011 – Bologna       0-2     Cesena

17.04.2011 – Chievo         2-0     Bologna

10.04.2011 – Bologna       0-2     Napoli

Sampdoria v Palermo Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday May 15th 2011, 2pm GMT

At this stage of the season - with only two rounds of games remaining -only a few teams are still in a position whereby these games will have consequences for their season. Sampdoria are one of those teams, as they are facing a tough battle to survive in Serie A.

Having finished fourth last season, the Genoa side started this one in the Champions League qualifiers. A satisfactory start to the league campaign saw them settle in mid-table by the time the Winter break came around, and so they decided to sell their top scorers, Antonio Cassano and Giampaolo Pazzini. From then on things have gone downhill, and Mauro Boselli’s injury-time winner for Genoa last week leaves Sampdoria two points from safety and staring at the prospect of commemorating the 20th anniversary of their only Serie A title by being relegated. Federico Macheda – who was brought to Sampdoria on loan from Manchester United to help fill the void left by Cassano and Pazzini, but who has failed to make an impact – is expected to miss this game due to injury.

Sampdoria fans will be hoping for goals from Nicola Pozzi

Palermo earned a place in the Europa League by beating AC Milan 2-1 on Tuesday to qualify for the cup final (their opponents Inter have already qualified for the Champions League). Their two remaining league games are therefore meaningless, and the match odds reflect this fact, but the Sicilians have shown renewed vigour since the return of coach Delio Rossi. They haven’t lost since he took charge for a second time, and with players competing for a place in the cup final line-up I am confident they will manage at least a draw against this Sampdoria team. The hosts look to be completely devoid of any confidence, and they could be relegated on Sunday if they fail to win and if Lecce beat their already-relegated rivals Bari.

Prediction – Palermo +1 (handicap betting) – 3pts

Match odds:    Sampdoria                         1/3

                     Draw                                 7/2

                     Palermo                           13/2

                     Palermo  +1                     21/10

Sampdoria: Last 5 Serie A Results

08.05.2011 – Genoa        2-1     Sampdoria

01.05.2011 – Sampdoria  3-3     Brescia

23.04.2011 – Bari           0-1     Sampdoria

16.04.2011 – AC Milan     3-0     Sampdoria

10.04.2011 – Sampdoria  1-2     Lecce

Palermo: Last 5 Serie A Results

07.05.2011 – Palermo       2-1     Bari

01.05.2011 – Parma         3-1     Palermo

23.04.2011 – Palermo       2-1     Napoli

16.04.2011 – Roma          2-3     Palermo

10.04.2011 – Palermo       2-2     Cesena

Serie A – week 36 round-up

Massimiliano Allegri has joined a select group including Arrigo Sacchi, Fabio Capello and Alberto Zaccheroni by winning the Serie A title in his first year with AC Milan. A draw in Rome was all the visitors needed, and it was what they settled for in the end despite having controlled the second half of the game. Milan’s joint top scorer, Zlatan Ibrahimović, has now finished on top of the league every year for the past eight years.

Milan celebrating their title win in Rome on Saturday

While the Rossoneri ensured that the Scudetto will remain in Milan, last year’s winners Inter booked their place in the Champions League group stages thanks to a 3-1 win over Fiorentina on Sunday. Napoli are likely to join them, though their place is not yet certain following a 2-1 defeat at Lecce.  The performance clearly didn’t impress Napoli president Aurelio De Laurentiis, who remarked afterwards that “the players were not worthy to wear the jersey and to represent the colours of Napoli.”

Lecce’s win lifted them out of the relegation zone, but it spelled bad news for Sampdoria, whose future in the top flight looks bleak following their dramatic derby defeat on Sunday evening. On-loan Argentinian Mauro Boselli sealed a 2-1 win for Genoa with what was literally the last kick of the game, deep in stoppage time. Sampdoria, who began this season in the Champions League qualifiers, are now two points from safety with a couple of tough games remaining against Palermo and Roma.

Brescia were relegated on Sunday after being beaten 2-1 by Catania, their 20th defeat of the season. A terrible run of recent form, which has seen them win only one of their last twelve, means that the Rondinelle will be making an instant return to Serie B.

Udinese leapfrogged Lazio and moved into fouth place when two first-half goals from Antonio Di Natale earned his side a 2-1 win over the Romans on Sunday. Mauro Zarate was presented with an opportunity to spark a comeback for the visitors, but his weak second-half penalty was easily saved by Udinese goalkeeper Samir Handanovic. Substitute Libor Kozak’s 76th-minute strike turned out to be nothing more than a consolation goal for Lazio. Udinese are now two points ahead of both Lazio and Roma, but with two games remaining - and considering the recent erratic form of these three sides - the battle for the final Champions League place is likely to go down to the wire.

Elsewhere, Cesena took a huge step towards survival in Serie A when they won 2-0 at Cagliari. Palermo came from behind to beat Bari 2-1 at the Stadio Renzo Barbera on Saturday. And finally, nobody was surprised when Bologna and Parma played out a 0-0 draw on Sunday. The odds on the draw had shrunk to 2/5 by kick-off time, and one report on the game noted that “chances were at a premium after the break, with both sides seemingly lacking energy.” Hmmm.

Juventus have an opportunity to move within three points of Udinese this evening when they take on Chievo before the focus turns to the Coppa Italia in midweek. AC Milan, remarkably, have never won the league and cup double in their 111-year history, but they have an opportunity to do so this season. The newly-crowned champions travel to Palermo tomorrow for the second leg of their semi-final, with the tie evenly balanced at 2-2. Inter will then host Roma on Wednesday, having won the first leg of their semi-final 1-0.

Til next time…

Serie A: week 36 results

Juventus    2-2    Chievo
Bologna     0-0    Parma        

Brescia      1-2    Catania       

Cagliari      0-2    Cesena       

Genoa       2-1    Sampdoria  

Inter         3-1    Fiorentina    

Lecce        2-1    Napoli         

Udinese     2-1    Lazio        

Palermo     2-1    Bari  

Roma        0-0    AC Milan   

Bologna v Parma Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday May 8th 2011, 2pm GMT

A quick glance at the betting odds for this game will raise at least one of your eyebrows. Parma’s run of three straight wins has lifted them out of the relegation battle and into thirteenth place on 41 points, while Bologna are one position below them on 40. The draw, which is normally priced at 2/1 or better, is a prohibitive 4/11 for this game. 

Sebastian Giovinco will attempt to help Parma overcome the odds on Sunday

As both of these sides are at least five points above the relegation zone with three games remaining, a draw may well be a result which will suit both teams. Current form, however, dictates that Parma should beat a Bologna side which has lost five games in a row.

This article may help to explain why the odds for this game appear, well, odd. An unusually large amount of money has been staked on the outcome of this game during the week on Betfair, so I am cautious about attempting to predict the result. However there are signs that late-season Italian games are no longer as predictable as they have been in the past.

Genoa effectively had nothing to play for last weekend, but they provided a tough challenge for Napoli nonetheless – despite the fact that supporters of both clubs are notoriously friendly towards each other. Genoa fans even showed their support for Napoli’s Champions League ambitions by celebrating when the home side took the lead late in the game. Another unexpected result came from the meeting of Chievo and Lecce on Sunday, where the draw was priced at an unusually low 11/10, but the home side won 1-0.

Odds of 9/2 are generous enough to make a small bet on Parma seem tempting considering the fact that they have comfortably beaten Palermo, Udinese and Inter in their last three games. But don’t be too shocked if this one ends in a draw.

Prediction – Parma to win – 2pts

Match odds:    Bologna                           7/2

                     Draw                              4/11

                     Parma                              9/2

Bologna: Last 5 Serie A Results

01.05.2011 – AC Milan      1-0     Bologna

23.04.2011 – Bologna       0-2     Cesena

17.04.2011 – Chievo         2-0     Bologna

10.04.2011 – Bologna       0-2    Napoli

02.04.2011 – Brescia        3-1     Bologna

Parma: Last 5 Serie A Results

01.05.2011 – Parma        3-1     Palermo

23.04.2011 – Udinese      0-2     Parma

16.04.2011 – Parma        2-0     Inter

10.04.2011 – Lazio          2-0     Parma

03.04.2011 – Parma        1-2     Bari

Lecce v Napoli Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday May 8th 2011, 2pm GMT

Napoli left it late to claim the three points on offer against Genoa last week, but Marek Hamsik’s 83rd-minute strike brought a huge sigh of relief from the home fans and ended a run of two straight Napoli defeats.

This win also virtually guaranteed Napoli’s place in the group stages of next season’s Champions League. They are eight points clear of Lazio in third place, a gap which is unlikely to be bridged with just three games remaining. A win at Lecce will guarantee a top three finish for the Azzurri – an excellent achievement for coach Walter Mazzarri in just his second season in charge (his first season at Napoli culminated in a sixth-place finish).

Napoli president Aurelio De Laurentiis, a film producer, has expressed his gratitude to Mazzarri in terms with which he is most familiar: “If Reja [former Napoli coach, now at Lazio], who remains a close friend, was my Clint Eastwood, then Mazzarri is my Sean Penn – grouchy, but very capable. I thank him for everything he is doing for Napoli.”

Walter Mazzarri, the Sean Penn of Napoli

Lecce’s ambition for next season is simply to survive in the top flight of Italian football. The Southern side have lost their last two games, and they need to improve their league position over the next three games or they will be playing in Serie B next term. The Salentini’s home form has been considerably better than their record on the road, but Napoli will present them with a tough test on Sunday.

With two tough games against Inter and Juventus in store for them after this one, Napoli may aim to clinch their place in the top three this weekend. If their attacking players perform to their potential, the visitors should come out on top of what will be a nervous and tightly contested contest.

Prediction – Napoli to win – 3pts

Match odds:    Lecce                              5/4

                     Draw                             21/10

                     Napoli                            11/5

                    

Lecce: Last 5 Serie A Results

01.05.2011 – Chievo         1-0     Lecce

23.04.2011 – Genoa          4-2     Lecce

17.04.2011 – Lecce           3-3     Cagliari

10.04.2011 – Sampdoria    1-2     Lecce

03.04.2011 – Lecce           2-0     Udinese

Napoli: Last 5 Serie A Results

30.04.2011 – Napoli         1-0     Genoa

23.04.2011 – Palermo       2-1     Napoli

17.04.2011 – Napoli         1-2     Udinese

10.04.2011 – Bologna       0-2     Napoli

03.04.2011 – Napoli         4-2     Lazio