Lazio beat Genoa 4-2 last Saturday to remain in the fight for fourth place, but three straight defeats before that game mean that theirs is an uphill struggle on Sunday. While they flirted with a top four placement for most of the season, the Romans are now likely to be playing in the Europa League after the Summer break along with their city rivals. The fact that Lecce no longer have to worry about relegation could either cause them to play with more freedom or with more apathy, but either way Lazio should have enough quality in their line-up to secure the points.
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| Francesco Guidolin taking a quiet moment to reflect on his dance routines |
The last time Udinese and Milan met they played out a thrilling 4-4 draw at the San Siro in January, and the Rossoneri’s last victory at the Stadio Friuli was in January 2008. Udinese themselves have hardly been consistent during the run-in to the end of the season, but a 2-1 win over Lazio followed by a 2-0 defeat of Chievo has put them in the driving seat. The last time they played in Europe’s elite club competition was in 2005/06, and as coach Francesco Guidolin has said of their task on Sunday, “we have to make the most of our chances in order to obtain the result that would take us to paradise.” As mentioned last week, Guidolin has vowed to emulate Kevin Prince Boateng by showcasing his own dance moves if Udinese achieve Champions League qualification (he plans to get some help and advice from Udinese's South American stars).
Milan are on an unbeaten run of seven league games, so this is not necessarily a straightforward task for Udinese. It remains to be seen how the Champions will approach the game: their season is effectively over, but six players (including Clarence Seedorf and Massimo Ambrosini) are out of contract after this game and may therefore be eager to impress. 31-year-old midfielder Andrea Pirlo has already announced that he will be leaving the club after 10 years of service, while Alessandro Nesta and Filippo Inzaghi have signed new one-year contracts.
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| Lecce will celebrate their survival in Serie A at the Stadio Via del Mare on Sunday |
While nothing is certain in football, a draw in Friuli would suit both the Champions and their hosts. And when a certain result suits both teams in an Italian game, that result often comes to pass - as it did two weeks ago when Milan needed a point from their game against Roma to secure the league title. If the sides are tied at half time, we may well see a timid second half like that which Napoli and Inter played out last Sunday.
Lazio need to avenge their defeat by Lecce earlier this season if they are to have any hope of fourth place, and they should do so. Lecce is a tough place to visit, but the hosts had both a derby win and Serie A survival to celebrate last Sunday and they are unlikely to be fighting as keenly for the points as their visitors this weekend. Though Lazio would have been delighted with the prospect of a fifth-place finish at the start of the season, Edy Reja and his players will ultimately be regretting missed opportunities if – as is now likely - they end up two points short of Champions League football and the significant financial boost it brings.
Predictions – Udinese to draw with AC Milan – 3pts
– Lazio to win at Lecce – 5pts
Serie A: week 38 fixtures and odds (all games take place on Sunday May 22nd)
K.O. (GMT) Fixtures Home Draw Away
5pm Cagliari v Parma 11/10 11/5 12/5
5pm Genoa v Cesena 4/6 13/5 4/1
5pm Palermo v Chievo 3/4 5/2 7/2
5pm Bologna v Bari 8/13 13/5 9/2
5pm Brescia v Fiorentina 19/10 21/10 7/5
5pm Inter Milan v Catania 1/2 14/5 11/2
7.45pm Juventus v Napoli 10/11 12/5 11/4
7.45pm Roma v Sampdoria 2/7 4/1 9/1
7.45pm Udinese v AC Milan 9/4 4/7 5/1
7.45pm Lecce v Lazio 5/1 13/5 4/7
Udinese: Last 5 Serie A Results
15.05.2011 – Chievo 0-2 Udinese
08.05.2011 – Udinese 2-1 Lazio
01.05.2011 – Fiorentina 5-2 Udinese
23.04.2011 – Udinese 0-2 Parma
17.05.2011 – Napoli 1-2 Udinese
AC Milan: Last 5 Serie A Results
14.05.2011 – AC Milan 4-1 Cagliari
07.05.2011 – Roma 0-0 AC Milan
01.05.2011 – AC Milan 1-0 Bologna
23.04.2011 – Brescia 0-1 AC Milan
16.05.2011 – AC Milan 3-0 Sampdoria
Lecce: Last 5 Serie A Results
15.05.2011 – Bari 0-2 Lecce
08.05.2011 – Lecce 2-1 Napoli
01.05.2011 – Chievo 1-0 Lecce
23.04.2011 – Genoa 4-2 Lecce
17.04.2011 – Lecce 3-3 Cagliari
Lazio: Last 5 Serie A Results
14.05.2011 – Lazio 4-2 Genoa
08.05.2011 – Udinese 2-1 Lazio
02.05.2011 – Lazio 0-1 Juventus
23.04.2011 – Inter 2-1 Lazio
17.04.2011 – Catania 1-4 Lazio
