Friday, May 6, 2011

Roma v AC Milan Preview and Betting Tips

Saturday May 7th 2011, 7.45pm GMT (live on ESPN)

Coach Massimiliano Allegri moved from Cagliari to Milan last Summer, and he is on the verge of delivering instant success. His side’s 1-0 win over Bologna last week was more laboured than comfortable, but the result means that Saturday’s trip to Rome can effectively bring an end to this season’s title race.

Milan had to rely on an eighth-minute goal from Mathieu Flamini last week, but top scorers Alexandre Pato and Zlatan Ibrahimović return from injury and suspension respectively to improve their team’s firepower in Rome. Mark Van Bommel is also available again following his one-game suspension. Another positive for the visitors is the fact that Roma midfielders Daniele De Rossi and Simone Perrotta were both handed three-match bans following the red cards they received at Bari last weekend.

Will Zlatan be on his best behaviour on his return from his three-match ban?

Francesco Totti will be the main threat to Milan’s solid defence – the striker has been in fine form of late, and he would have netted a hat-trick at Bari last Sunday were it not for a superb penalty save from Jean Francois Gillet. The two goals which Totti did put past Bari moved him above Roberto Baggio and into fifth place in Serie A’s all-time goalscoring charts.

Milan lost 1-0 to Roma at the San Siro in December, but form favours the visitors on Saturday. Roma have collected just eight points from their last seven home games, while Milan have won four of their last five on the road. A draw or better at the Stadio Olimpico will secure a first league title for the Rossoneri since the 2003/2004 season, and I think this will be sufficient motivation for Allegri’s men.

Prediction – AC Milan to win – 4pts

Match odds:    Roma                            11/8
                     Draw                            21/10
                     AC Milan                         2/1
                    
Roma: Last 5 Serie A Results
01.05.2011 – Bari             2-3     Roma
23.04.2011 – Roma          1-0     Chievo
16.04.2011 – Roma          2-3     Palermo
09.04.2011 – Udinese       1-2     Roma
03.04.2011 – Roma          0-2     Juventus

AC Milan: Last 5 Serie A Results
01.05.2011 - AC Milan     1-0     Bologna
23.04.2011 – Brescia       0-1     AC Milan
16.04.2011 – AC Milan     3-0     Sampdoria
09.04.2011 – Fiorentina   1-2     AC Milan
02.04.2011 – AC Milan     3-0     Inter