A quick glance at the betting odds for this game will raise at least one of your eyebrows. Parma’s run of three straight wins has lifted them out of the relegation battle and into thirteenth place on 41 points, while Bologna are one position below them on 40. The draw, which is normally priced at 2/1 or better, is a prohibitive 4/11 for this game.
 |
| Sebastian Giovinco will attempt to help Parma overcome the odds on Sunday |
As both of these sides are at least five points above the relegation zone with three games remaining, a draw may well be a result which will suit both teams. Current form, however, dictates that Parma should beat a Bologna side which has lost five games in a row.
This article may help to explain why the odds for this game appear, well, odd. An unusually large amount of money has been staked on the outcome of this game during the week on Betfair, so I am cautious about attempting to predict the result. However there are signs that late-season Italian games are no longer as predictable as they have been in the past.
Genoa effectively had nothing to play for last weekend, but they provided a tough challenge for Napoli nonetheless – despite the fact that supporters of both clubs are notoriously friendly towards each other. Genoa fans even showed their support for Napoli’s Champions League ambitions by celebrating when the home side took the lead late in the game. Another unexpected result came from the meeting of Chievo and Lecce on Sunday, where the draw was priced at an unusually low 11/10, but the home side won 1-0.
Odds of 9/2 are generous enough to make a small bet on Parma seem tempting considering the fact that they have comfortably beaten Palermo, Udinese and Inter in their last three games. But don’t be too shocked if this one ends in a draw.
Prediction – Parma to win – 2pts
Match odds: Bologna 7/2
Draw 4/11
Parma 9/2
Bologna: Last 5 Serie A Results
01.05.2011 – AC Milan 1-0 Bologna
23.04.2011 – Bologna 0-2 Cesena
17.04.2011 – Chievo 2-0 Bologna
10.04.2011 – Bologna 0-2 Napoli
02.04.2011 – Brescia 3-1 Bologna
Parma: Last 5 Serie A Results
01.05.2011 – Parma 3-1 Palermo
23.04.2011 – Udinese 0-2 Parma
16.04.2011 – Parma 2-0 Inter
10.04.2011 – Lazio 2-0 Parma
03.04.2011 – Parma 1-2 Bari
