Friday, February 24, 2012

Napoli v Internazionale Match Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday 26th February 2012, 7.45pm GMT (live on ESPN)

The contrasting fortunes of these two sides was epitomised by their respective Champions League results in midweek. Inter’s performance in Marseilles – although quite negative and defensive – wasn’t bad compared to their recent domestic efforts. A late lapse in concentration however meant that they recorded a fourth straight defeat, despite their efforts. Napoli, meanwhile, are on the crest of a wave and on the verge of a Champions League quarter-final after beating Chelsea convincingly on the same turf where they will face Inter on Sunday evening.

Inter’s league form has been erratic this term, to say the least. Following a rocky start to the season under Gian Piero Gasperini, his replacement Claudio Ranieri appeared to stabilise the squad. An impressive run of results followed, including a win in the Milan derby and a come-from-behind victory over Lazio, and then the Nerazzurri suddenly fell apart again. Nine-year-old fan Filippo showed up at the San Siro for last week’s game against Bologna with a (very polite) banner which read "Could you win? Otherwise at school they will make fun of me. Thanks, Filippo." Bologna won 3-0. Poor Filippo.

I'm not predicting an enjoyable week in school for Filippo next week...

Napoli have always been a tough nut to crack at the Stadio San Paolo, and their current squad is the best they have had in a long time. Gokhan Inler has added quite a bit of guile in midfield to a team which finished in the top three last season. Marek Hamsik is suspended for this game, but fellow attackers Cavani and Lavezzi are on top form at present, and on-loan-from-Inter player Goran Pandev will provide adequate cover for Hamsik on Sunday. Inter defenders Maicon, Ranocchia and playmaker Ricardo Alvarez are all expected to miss out due to injury.

Ranieri is currently feeling the pressure at Inter, and Chairman Massimo Moratti’s recent statement that he will “try to keep going” with the former Chelsea boss was hardly a vote of massive confidence. The Inter coach has made some strange selection decisions of late – starting the frustrating Mauro Zarate ahead of top scorer Diego Milito in Marseilles for example – and he appears to have lost the confidence of his players. Five league games without a win tells its own story, and I don’t expect Napoli to show their wounded opponents any mercy on Sunday.

Prediction – Napoli to win – 4pts

Match odds:            Napoli           10/11
                             Draw            9/4
                             Inter             3/1