Roma v AC Milan Preview and Betting Tips

Saturday May 7th 2011, 7.45pm GMT (live on ESPN)

Coach Massimiliano Allegri moved from Cagliari to Milan last Summer, and he is on the verge of delivering instant success. His side’s 1-0 win over Bologna last week was more laboured than comfortable, but the result means that Saturday’s trip to Rome can effectively bring an end to this season’s title race.

Milan had to rely on an eighth-minute goal from Mathieu Flamini last week, but top scorers Alexandre Pato and Zlatan Ibrahimović return from injury and suspension respectively to improve their team’s firepower in Rome. Mark Van Bommel is also available again following his one-game suspension. Another positive for the visitors is the fact that Roma midfielders Daniele De Rossi and Simone Perrotta were both handed three-match bans following the red cards they received at Bari last weekend.

Will Zlatan be on his best behaviour on his return from his three-match ban?

Francesco Totti will be the main threat to Milan’s solid defence – the striker has been in fine form of late, and he would have netted a hat-trick at Bari last Sunday were it not for a superb penalty save from Jean Francois Gillet. The two goals which Totti did put past Bari moved him above Roberto Baggio and into fifth place in Serie A’s all-time goalscoring charts.

Milan lost 1-0 to Roma at the San Siro in December, but form favours the visitors on Saturday. Roma have collected just eight points from their last seven home games, while Milan have won four of their last five on the road. A draw or better at the Stadio Olimpico will secure a first league title for the Rossoneri since the 2003/2004 season, and I think this will be sufficient motivation for Allegri’s men.

Prediction – AC Milan to win – 4pts

Match odds:    Roma                            11/8

                     Draw                            21/10

                     AC Milan                         2/1

                    

Roma: Last 5 Serie A Results

01.05.2011 – Bari             2-3     Roma

23.04.2011 – Roma          1-0     Chievo

16.04.2011 – Roma          2-3     Palermo

09.04.2011 – Udinese       1-2     Roma

03.04.2011 – Roma          0-2     Juventus

AC Milan: Last 5 Serie A Results

01.05.2011 - AC Milan     1-0     Bologna

23.04.2011 – Brescia       0-1     AC Milan

16.04.2011 – AC Milan     3-0     Sampdoria

09.04.2011 – Fiorentina   1-2     AC Milan

02.04.2011 – AC Milan     3-0     Inter

Serie A - week 35 round-up

AC Milan are within touching distance of this season's Serie A title after doing just about enough to pick up three points at home against Bologna. An eighth-minute goal from Mathieu Flamini eventually decided the game, and left Milan needing a maximum of one point from their final three games. Their city rivals Inter had denied the Rossoneri the chance to lift the trophy on Sunday when two stoppage time goals from Giampaolo Pazzini snatched a dramatic victory for his side at Cesena. Inter retained second place having come from behind to win 2-1 for the second week in a row.

Flamini's goal brought the Frenchman closer to winning his first Serie A medal

Napoli also left it late to end the challenge of Genoa at the Stadio San Paolo and to end their own run of two straight defeats. An 82nd-minute strike from Marek Hamsik was enough to lift the spirits of the large home support, and to keep Napoli hot on the heels of Inter in third place. Fifth-placed Udinese were on the wrong end of a 5-2 scoreline at Fiorentina. This, a second defeat in as many games for the Friuli side, allowed Roma to draw level with them on points when the Giallorossi beat Bari 3-2 in a dramatic encounter on Sunday evening. Roma had two players sent off (Bari themselves were also reduced to ten in a heated second half), and only scored one of the two penalties which they were awarded, but they are back in contention for the final Champions League qualifying place.

Parma claimed another vital three points and moved closer to safety by beating Palermo 3-1. Chievo showed their willingness to remain out of the relegation battle by beating Lecce 1-0, as did Catania when they beat Cagliari 2-0 on Sunday, despite having been reduced to ten men.

In the heart of the relegation dogfight, Brescia were denied all three points when Sampdoria grabbed an injury-time equaliser to tie the game at 3-3. Lazio will aim to increase the distance between themselves and the other contenders for fourth place when they play Juventus on Monday evening (preview below). The result will be posted, and the Serie A table will be updated, after this game.

Til next time...


Serie A: week 35 results
AC Milan           1-0         Bologna    
Bari                  2-3         Roma    
Catania             2-0         Cagliari    
Chievo              1-0         Lecce    
Fiorentina          5-2         Udinese    
Parma               3-1        Palermo    
Sampdoria         3-3         Brescia    
Cesena             1-2         Inter Milan    
Napoli              1-0          Genoa    
Lazio                0-1          Juventus
 

Lazio v Juventus Preview and Betting Tips

Monday May 2nd 2011, 7.45pm GMT (live on ESPN)

Had Juventus not thrown away their comfortable 2-0 lead over Catania in dramatic fashion last week, this game would have had much more significance for the visitors. The story of that single game basically sums up the entire erratic season that Juve have had under Luigi Del Neri, who is unlikely to be in charge next term as a result.

The difference of seven points between the Bianconeri and hosts Lazio is too big a gap to bridge with only four games remaining, and the best Juve can realistically hope for next season is a place in the Europa League for the second year running. Lazio are still winning the fight for fourth place – a battle which has been more intriguing than the title race in recent weeks – while Udinese lie just a point behind them, and outsiders Roma lurk in sixth place.

Udinese face a tough trip to Fiorentina this weekend, while Roma should take all three points from their visit to already-relegated Bari on Sunday evening. Lazio may or may not still be in fourth place by the time they kick off against Juve, but they will be aiming for maximum points on Monday evening before making the crucial trip to Udinese next week. As coach Edy Reja has put it, “we can’t allow the Champions League to slip through our fingers.”

Fernando Muslera - a key figure in Lazio's quest for Champions League qualification

Midfielder Stefano Mauri is suspended for the Biancoceleste following his red card last week, while Stefan Radu is out for the remainder of the season.

Juventus haven’t lost in the capital since 2005, their most recent visit resulting in a 2-0 win over Roma a month ago. This was their only win from their last four away games however. Lazio’s away record against the bigger teams this season is not a good one – they lost thanks to a 95th-minute goal in Turin the last time these two met – but they have beaten Inter, Napoli and Udinese at the Stadio Olimpico. The home side’s motivation will be greater on Monday, so I expect them to do enough to win a tough contest.

Prediction – Lazio to win – 3pts

Match odds:    Lazio                             11/10

                     Draw                             21/10

                     Juventus                         5/2

Lazio: Last 5 Serie A Results

23.04.2011 – Inter           2-1    Lazio

17.04.2011 – Catania       1-4     Lazio

09.04.2011 – Inter           2-0    Chievo

02.04.2011 – AC Milan      3-0    Inter

20.03.2011 – Inter           1-0    Lecce

Juventus: Last 5 Serie A Results

23.04.2011 – Juventus      2-2     Catania

17.04.2011 – Fiorentina    0-0     Juventus

10.04.2011 – Juventus      3-2    Genoa

03.04.2011 – Roma          0-2    Juventus

20.03.2011 – Juventus      2-1    Brescia

Parma v Palermo Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday May 1st 2011, 2pm GMT

This is a meeting of two sides whose coaches were appointed at the beginning of April. Delio Rossi is back at Palermo after Serse Cosmi failed to inspire the Rosanero players, while Franco Colomba was handed Pasquale Marino’s job at Parma after they were beaten at home by Bari.

Columba saw his new team lose 2-0 at Lazio in his first game in charge, but he has recorded surprise wins over Inter and Udinese since then to ease Parma’s relegation worries somewhat. Former Palermo striker Amauri has been on top form of late, scoring three times in his last two games for Parma.

Amauri has settled well at Parma since joining on loan in January

Rossi has been enjoying his second spell at Palermo, and has yet to taste defeat since returning. League wins over Roma and Napoli, coupled with an impressive 2-2 draw at AC Milan in the first leg of the cup semi-final, have made Rossi’s re-appointment a popular one among Palermo supporters. His relationship with club owner Maurizio Zamparini has been strained however, following a public war of words which preceded Rossi’s sacking in late February. Zamparini may have plans to replace Rossi again in the summer, but he it seems unlikely that fans or players will support him in doing so. Javier Pastore –one of Palermo’s stars – has been quoted as saying “I owe (Rossi) a lot. Since he returned you have seen once again the true Pastore. If he leaves I will think about my future.”

Saturday’s game promises to be an exciting one, as both teams will be eager to continue their winning ways. Palermo are just six points off the Europa League qualifying places, while Parma sit three points above the relegation zone. The recent good form of both of these sides makes it a tough one to call, but considering the fact that the Palermo squad contains more quality overall, I think an away win is worth a small bet.

Prediction – Palermo to win – 2pts

Match odds:    Parma                           10/11

                     Draw                             21/10

                     Palermo                         16/5

Parma: Last 5 Serie A Results

23.04.2011 – Udinese      0-2     Parma

16.04.2011 – Parma        2-0     Inter

10.04.2011 – Lazio         2-0     Parma

03.04.2011 – Parma        1-2     Bari

20.03.2011 – Sampdoria  0-1     Parma

Palermo: Last 5 Serie A Results
23.04.2011 – Palermo      2-1     Napoli

16.04.2011 – Roma          2-3     Palermo

10.04.2011 – Palermo       2-2    Cesena

03.04.2011 – Catania        4-0    Palermo

19.03.2011 – Palermo       1-0    AC Milan

AC Milan v Bologna Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday May 1st 2011, 2pm GMT (live on ESPN)

Should Milan’s rivals Inter fail to manage the tough task of beating Cesena on their home turf on Saturday, the Rossoneri will take the field on Sunday in the knowledge that a win will seal their first Serie A title win in seven years. Even if they don't clinch the title on Sunday, a victory will leave them needing just a single point from the three league games which remain after this fixture.

Top scorer Zlatan Ibrahimović will miss out as this is the final game of his latest three-match ban. Alexandre Pato has made a quicker recovery from his thigh strain than expected, athough he is likely to start on the bench while Robinho and Cassano lead the line. Veteran striker Filippo Inzaghi is reported to be one more week away from a return following the knee injury which has kept him sidelined for most of the season, while Alessandro Nesta and Massimo Ambrosini are both expected to start for Milan.

Inzaghi - hoping for a return to action before the season's end

Bologna seem to have collectively opened their deck chairs and settled into the Summer mood since they ensured their survival in Italy’s top flight. Sitting comfortably in twelfth place, they have lost all of their last four games, and their last win was at Lecce on March 13th.

Such form doesn’t bode well for a team visiting the home of the league leaders. Milan boast the best defensive record in Serie A and they are joint top scorers with Inter. The champions elect have won five in a row, and it will be a huge surprise if they don’t make it six in comfortable fashion on Sunday. If the title party is on, we could see a comprehensive Milan victory at the San Siro.

Prediction – AC Milan -1 (handicap betting) – 5pts

Match odds:    AC Milan                        1/5

                     Draw                             5/1

                     Bologna                        11/1

                     AC Milan -1                    4/6

AC Milan: Last 5 Serie A Results

23.04.2011 – Brescia       0-1     AC Milan

16.04.2011 – AC Milan     3-0     Sampdoria

09.04.2011 – Fiorentina   1-2     AC Milan

02.04.2011 – AC Milan     3-0     Inter

19.03.2011 – Palermo      1-0     AC Milan

Bologna: Last 5 Serie A Results

23.04.2011 – Bologna       0-2    Cesena

17.04.2011 – Chievo         2-0    Bologna

10.04.2011 – Bologna       0-2    Napoli

02.04.2011 – Brescia        3-1    Bologna

20.03.2011 – Bologna       1-1    Genoa