16th February 2011, 7.45pm GMT (live on ITV 1, RTE 2)
This re-run of the 2009/2010 quarter-final is probably the most eagerly anticipated tie of this round in the Champions League. Arsenal held Barca to a 2-2 draw at the Emirates last time, but lost the tie 6-3 on aggregate. Although the general consensus is that the 2011 Arsenal are a tougher prospect, Barca are 1/4 favourites to triumph over two legs.
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Barcelona continue to dominate La Liga this season, and they currently top the table five points ahead of second-placed Real Madrid. Saturday’s 1-1 draw at Sporting Gijon ended a record-breaking run of 16 straight league wins, and footballer of the year Lionel Messi has already found the net 24 times in 23 league fixtures. Barcelona will have play this game without captain Carles Puyol however who, along with Jeffren Suarez, has been ruled out due to injury.
Arsenal have improved their domestic form this season, and they are currently in second place in the Premier League, just four points behind Manchester United. Crucially, and unusually, manager Arsene Wenger has almost a full squad to choose from for this fixture. Abou Diaby is the only notable absentee, while playmaker Samir Nasri has been passed fit. Though all eyes will be on their Catalan captain Cesc Fabregas, Robin Van Persie could prove to be the key player for the Gunners on the night. The Dutch striker is in fine form at the moment, with 10 league goals to his name thus far.
This game is too close to call in my opinion. The odds on a Barcelona win are practically identical to those offered on a combination of the draw and an Arsenal win (Arsenal +1). Barcelona will be hungry for Champions League success this season having failed to make the final last year, but Wenger insists that Arsenal “have the belief and a strong togetherness to show we are a different team now.”
Arsenal may well prove to be more of a match for Barca than they were last season, but I believe the only certainty in this game is that there will be goals.
Prediction – over 3.5 goals – 3pts
Arsenal 3/1
Draw 13/5
Barcelona 10/11
Over 3.5 goals 13/8
