Friday, February 25, 2011

AC Milan v Napoli Match Preview and Betting Tips

February 28th 2011, 7.45pm GMT (live on ESPN)

Monday night’s top of the table clash is undoubtedly the biggest game of the weekend in Serie A. Second-placed Napoli will aim to draw level with Milan at the top of the table in front of an already sold-out San Siro.

“I have no fear in saying that we play the best football in Italy,” announced Napoli coach Walter Mazzarri ahead of the game. While it is Udinese who deserve that accolade in my opinion, there is no arguing with Napoli’s results. Or Walter’s lack of modesty. Mazzarri continued: “on Monday, I will line up a team that will be the best possible according to mental and physical freshness.”

Napoli were knocked out of the Europa League on Thursday night when they lost 2-1 at Villareal. This followed a disappointing European result for Milan, who were beaten 1-0 at home in their first leg Champions League fixture against Tottenham last week. Milan will be the fresher of the two sides however, as their last game was Sunday’s win at Chievo.

A young Antonio Cassano alongside Milan legend Roberto Baggio

Napoli’s successes this season have been built on a mean defence, complimented by the creativity of Ezequiel Lavezzi and Marek Hamsik and the finishing of Edinson Cavani. They will be without the services of the suspended Lavezzi for this game however, and his absence was notable last Sunday when they beat Catania 1-0. Milan will be without some long-term injured absentees, but the in-form trio of Cassano, Pato and Robinho will be available.

Milan’s defenders deserve credit too as they hold the best defensive record in Serie A, having conceded a mere 20 goals so far this season. Napoli have conceded just 22, and so share the second best record with Lazio. This game may decide the destination of the Scudetto, and I expect it to be a tight, cagey affair which could well end scoreless.

Prediction – under 2.5 goals - 7pts

Match odds:    AC Milan                   4/5
                     Draw                       12/5
                     Napoli                     10/3
                     Under 2.5 goals        8/11

AC Milan: Last 5 Serie A Results
20.02.2011 – Chievo 1-2 AC Milan
12.02.2011 – AC Milan 4-0 Parma
06.02.2011 – Genoa 1-1 AC Milan
01.02.2011 – AC Milan 0-0 Lazio
29.01.2011 – Catania 0-2 AC Milan

Napoli: Last 5 Serie A Results
20.02.2011 – Napoli 1-0 Catania
12.02.2011 – Roma 0-2 Napoli
06.02.2011 – Napoli 2-0 Cesena
02.02.2011 – Chievo 2-0 Napoli
30.01.2011 – Napoli 4-0 Sampdoria