Friday, April 1, 2011

Napoli v Lazio Match Preview and Betting Tips

Sunday April 3rd 2011, 11.30am GMT (live on ESPN)

This meeting of third versus fifth in Serie A marks Lazio coach Edy Reja’s return to the Stadio San Paolo, where he coached Napoli for four years until 2009. Reja achieved back-to-back promotions with Napoli to lift them from Serie C1 back to Serie A in the space of two years, so he can expect a warm reception on Sunday.

This season Reja has managed to defy the experts by maintaining a consistently lofty league position with Lazio. The Rome side are in contention for Champions League football next season despite the fact that most observers expected them to finish in mid-table at best. Napoli under Walter Mazzarri have also surprised onlookers with their progress this term, and they currently sit just three points behind table-toppers AC Milan in third.

One thing Reja hasn’t managed is to win a Rome derby in four attempts, a fact which he will need to correct if he wishes to win the hearts of Lazio supporters. The Biancoceleste have responded well to their latest derby defeat however, beating Cesena 1-0 in their last game.

Muslera representing Uruguay in Dublin this week

A key player for the visitors is their excellent goalkeeper Fernando Muslera, who has just spent over a week on international duty with the Uruguay squad. On Sunday he will be faced with the task of preventing his countryman and recent team-mate Edinson Cavani from adding to his tally of 22 league goals so far this season. “I know all the Matador’s secrets,” said Muslera, “we often challenged each other to a penalty shoot-out in training….when he shoots inside the penalty area, he scores 90 per cent of the time.”

Lazio will have to make do without the services of the injured Mobido Diakate and Tommaso Rocchi for this game, while defender Stefan Radu and key midfielders Cristian Ledesma and Francesco Matuzalem are all suspended – the latter is just beginning a four-game ban. Napoli players Hugo Campagnaro and Gianluca Grava are also expected to miss out due to injuries.

The Stadio San Paolo is a tough place for any side to visit, and Lazio have won only one of their last ten away games. They boast the second best defensive record in Serie A however (Napoli’s defence are third best), and may well frustrate the Napoli attack. Considering the fact that there has been two goals or less in each of Lazio’s last nine games, another low-scoring affair looks like the safe bet.

Prediction – under 2.5 goals – 4pts

Match odds:    Napoli                           8/11
                     Draw                             9/4
                     Lazio                             4/1
                     Under 2.5 goals              4/7

Napoli: Last 5 Serie A Results
20.03.2011 – Napoli      2-1     Cagliari
13.03.2011 – Parma      1-3     Napoli
06.03.2011 – Napoli      0-0     Brescia
28.02.2011 – AC Milan   3-0     Napoli
20.02.2011 – Napoli      1-0     Catania

Lazio: Last 5 Serie A Results
19.03.2011 – Lazio        1-0     Cesena
13.03.2011 – Roma       2-0     Lazio
06.03.2011 – Lazio        2-0     Palermo
27.02.2011 – Cagliari     1-0     Lazio
20.02.2011 – Lazio        1-0     Bari