Friday, April 8, 2011

Udinese v Roma Preview and Betting Tips

Saturday April 9th 2011, 7.45pm GMT  (live on ESPN)

This game, which Roma coach Vincenzo Montella described as “a play-off” (for a place in next year’s Champions League), is a meeting between two sides who both lost 2-0 last weekend – Roma to visitors Juventus, and Udinese to their hosts Lecce.

Roma lie in sixth place in Serie A, six points behind Udinese who are fourth in the table and therefore occupy the final Champions League spot. The Romans have not won since their latest derby victory over Lazio, and had they taken advantage of Udinese’s slip-up last week by beating Juve, this game would have been even more intriguing.

Considering the nature of their performance against Juventus, it crossed my mind that Roma may have already “clocked out” for the season after their derby win over Lazio. Having seen their club being taken over recently by new American owners, the players may be looking ahead to next season when they are likely to see a new coach in charge. This campaign has been a disappointing one for Roma fans, the only real high points being their three derby victories.

Antonio Di Natale will be hoping to add to his 25-goal tally in Serie A on Saturday

Udinese’s performance last week was lacklustre, and the result was the big surprise in a weekend of surprises. The Friuli side had gone seven games without conceding before facing Lecce, but they looked defensively frail last week and their attacking spark was non-existent. Did the international break steal their momentum? Whatever the reason, they simply need to win against Roma if they are to earn a real reward for their progress in the second half of the season.

Midfielder Gokhan Inler misses out for Udinese due to suspension, while Roma’s Philippe Mexes is expected to be sidelined for several months as a result of an injury which he received in the game against Juventus last week. Incidentally, Mexes has signalled that he intends to leave Roma at the end of the season. His fellow Frenchman Jeremy Menez is also injured.

If Udinese’s attacking players can regain their cohesion and put pressure on their visitors, Roma’s defence will struggle. Though Roma won 2-0 the last time these two met, I’m expecting Udinese to prevail on Saturday in a game which should feature a few goals and plenty of entertainment.

Prediction – Udinese to win – 4pts

Match odds:    Udinese                           6/5
                     Draw                              21/10
                     Roma                             23/10

Udinese: Last 5 Serie A Results
03.04.2011 – Lecce        2-0    Udinese
20.03.2011 – Udinese     2-0    Catania
13.03.2011 – Cagliari      0-4    Udinese
06.03.2011 – Udinese     1-0    Bari
27.02.2011 – Palermo     0-7    Udinese

Roma: Last 5 Serie A Results
03.04.2011 – Roma        0-2    Juventus
20.03.2011 – Fiorentina  2-2    Roma
13.03.2011 – Roma        2-0    Lazio
04.03.2011 – Lecce        1-2     Roma
27.02.2011 – Roma        2-2    Parma